Published on August 26, 2025
Two weeks after deploying military troops and federal law enforcement agents to Washington, DC, President Trump said he likely would take similar action in other large cities, including Chicago. This brief reviews crime trends in Chicago using data from the Council on Criminal Justice Mid-Year 2025 Crime Trends report, released in July 2025. That report examined offenses recorded by law enforcement in Chicago, Washington, and 40 other American cities from 2018 through June 2025. It is complemented here by findings on trends in the lethality of violence from a separate Council report covering 17 cities.
Chicago’s crime trends differ depending on the time period and crime type considered. Some media outlets have pointed to the Council’s year-end 2023 report, highlighting a 369% increase in reported crime in Chicago from 2019 to 2023. It is important to note that this figure combines violent, property, and drug offenses, and was driven primarily by the surge in motor vehicle thefts that affected Chicago and many other large cities during this period, rather than by a uniform rise across all crime categories.
Looking at more recent data, Chicago’s overall crime rate in June 2025 (444.8 incidents per 100,000 residents) was lower than in June of the two years immediately prior to the COVID pandemic: 12% lower than in June 2018 (503.8 per 100,000) and 8% lower than in June 2019 (483.6 per 100,000). Violent crime also has declined, with all categories lower in the first six months of 2025 than during the same period in 2024. The drop in homicide in Chicago during the first half of this year is about double the size of the drop in other large American cities. Overall, Chicago’s declines mirror patterns of reported violent crime in other large cities across the country, but the level of violent crime in the city remains substantially higher than the average in our sample, and some property crime levels are still higher than they were before the pandemic.
To help inform the debate about crime in Chicago, CCJ compiled statistics for 13 crime types dating back to 2018. The charts below present six-month trends; monthly counts and rates for Chicago and other cities in the sample can be explored in the offense dashboard at the bottom of the Mid-Year 2025 Crime Trends report.
Please note the following limitations: The cities included in this analysis are not necessarily representative of all jurisdictions in the United States. Not all cities published data for each offense (see the Appendix of the Mid-Year 2025 Crime Trends report for which cities reported which offenses), and trends in offenses with fewer reporting cities should be viewed with extra caution. In addition, not all crimes are reported to law enforcement, and the data collected for this report are subject to revision by local jurisdictions.
Homicide
Figure 1 shows Chicago’s homicide rate in six-month intervals (January to June and July to December) from January 2018 through June 2025.
Figure 1. Homicide Rates in Chicago, January 2018 – June 2025
Drawing on trends from the Mid-Year 2025 Crime Trends report, and looking more closely at the monthly data in the offense dashboard, we see the following:
- There were two peaks in Chicago homicides between January 2018 and June 2025: July 2020 (111 reported incidents, 4.0 per 100,000 residents) and July 2021 (112 incidents, 4.2 per 100,000).
- In June 2025, there were 36 reported homicides (1.3 per 100,000), a 65% reduction from the July 2021 peak.
- In the first half of 2025 (January-June), Chicago’s homicide rate was 33% lower than it was for the same period in 2024. That decline was about twice the average decrease of 17% seen in the 30 large cities in CCJ’s study sample that reported homicide data. (See figure)
- During the first half of 2025, the homicide rate in Chicago was 25% lower than in January-June 2019. This decline is also larger than the average decrease in homicide in the 30 study cities, which was -14%. (See figure)
- Between July 2024 and June 2025, Chicago’s homicide rate was 13% lower than it was during the pre-pandemic year of July 2018 to June 2019. Across the 30 cities in CCJ’s sample, fewer than half (11 cities) saw homicide rates fall below their 2018-2019 levels. (See figure)
- Overall, the drop in homicides across the 30 cities is being driven in part by large reductions in historically high-homicide cities such as Baltimore and St. Louis.
Aggravated Assault
Aggravated assaults are assaults committed with a deadly weapon or those that result in or threaten serious bodily injury to the victim. Figure 2 shows the aggravated assault rate in Chicago in six-month intervals through June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Chicago’s aggravated assault rate was 16% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 23 study cities with data for that crime was -10%.
Figure 2. Aggravated Assault Rates in Chicago, January 2018 – June 2025
Below are additional details from the offense dashboard:
- Between January 2018 and June 2025, aggravated assault followed a regular seasonal pattern, with peaks in June, July, and August. The highest summer peak occurred in June 2024, with 1,803 reported aggravated assault incidents (67.7 per 100,000 residents).
- Aggravated assaults then trended down from the peak, and in June 2025, there were 1,554 reported incidents (57.1 per 100,000) – a 16% reduction from the June 2024 peak.
Gun Assault
Gun assaults are a subset of aggravated assaults. Figure 3 shows the gun assault rate in Chicago in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Chicago’s gun assault rate was 27% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in 11 study cities providing data for gun assaults was -21%.
Figure 3. Gun Assault Rates in Chicago, January 2018 – June 2025
Below are additional details from the offense dashboard:
- Gun assaults peaked in July 2021 at 831 incidents (30.8 per 100,000 residents).
- In June 2025, there were 485 reported incidents (17.8 per 100,000), a 42% decrease from the July 2021 peak.
Sexual Assault
Figure 4 shows the reported rate of sexual assault in Chicago in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. During the first six months of 2025, Chicago’s sexual assault rate was 1% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 23 study cities with data for this crime was -10%.
Figure 4. Sexual Assault Rates in Chicago, January 2018 – June 2025
Below are additional details from the offense dashboard:
- Sexual assaults peaked in July 2019 at 181 incidents (6.7 per 100,000 residents). In August 2024, a similar peak of 177 incidents occurred (6.6 per 100,000).
- In June 2025, there were 126 reported incidents (4.6 per 100,000) – a 30% decrease from the August 2024 peak.
Robbery
Figure 5 shows the robbery rate in Chicago in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Chicago’s robbery rate was 35% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 34 study cities with data for robbery was -20%.
Figure 5. Robbery Rates in Chicago, January 2018 – June 2025
Below are additional details from the offense dashboard:
- Robbery peaked in August 2023 at 1,213 reported incidents (45.5 per 100,000 residents) and remained near this level through October 2023.
- In June 2025, there were 631 reported incidents (23.2 per 100,000) – a 49% reduction from the August 2023 peak.
Carjacking
Figure 6 shows the carjacking rate in Chicago in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Chicago’s carjacking rate was 51% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the nine study cities providing carjacking data was -24%.
Figure 6. Carjacking Rates in Chicago, January 2018 – June 2025
Below are additional details from the offense dashboard:
- Carjacking rose sharply during 2020 and peaked in January 2021 at 217 reported incidents (8 per 100,000 residents).
- In June 2025, there were 64 reported incidents (2.4 per 100,000) – a 70% drop from the January 2021 peak.
Lethality Trends
Lethality refers to the share of violent incidents that result in death. Lethality is calculated as the number of homicides per 1,000 aggravated assaults and robberies. In July 2025, CCJ released a report examining lethality trends in 17 large American cities that consistently reported data on homicide, aggravated assault, and robbery.
Figure 7 shows trends in lethality in Chicago from 2012 to 2024. From 2013 (the lowest point during the study period) to 2016, lethality rose 68%, then dropped through 2019 before spiking 57% in 2020. Lethality fell slightly in 2021 (-1%), dropped more sharply in 2022 (-11%) and 2023 (-24%), and fell again in 2024 (-3%). Lethality of violent crime in Chicago was significantly lower in 2022, 2023, and 2024 than during 2020-2021, the peak years of the pandemic. In 2024, lethality was 23% higher than in 2012.
Figure 7. Overall Lethality Trends in Chicago, 2012–2024
Figure 8 shows trends in the lethality of gun-related aggravated assaults in Chicago. From 2012 to 2019, firearm lethality fluctuated within a narrow range (±9%) in Chicago. It then rose 15% from 2019 to 2020. Firearm lethality in 2020 was not significantly different from levels in earlier years, except for 2019, when it was at a low of 108.8 per 1,000 gun assaults. After 2020, firearm lethality began to decline, with one-year drops in 2021 (-14%), 2022 (-5%), 2023 (-10%), and 2024 (-6%). In 2024, firearm lethality was 30% lower than in 2012. (Note: Robberies are excluded from the firearm lethality measure due to an anomalous increase in gun-related robberies. Please see the report for more details.)
Figure 8. Gun Assault Lethality Trends in Chicago, 2012–2024
Domestic Violence
Figure 9 shows the reported rate of domestic violence in Chicago in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Chicago’s domestic violence rate was 10% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in nine study cities with data on domestic violence was +3%.
Figure 9. Domestic Violence Rates in Chicago, January 2018 – June 2025
Below are additional details from the offense dashboard:
- From January 2018 to June 2025, domestic violence in Chicago followed a consistent seasonal pattern, peaking between May and July at 600-650 incidents (about 22 to 24 per 100,000 residents).
- In June 2025, the number of reported domestic violence incidents fell to 552 (20.3 per 100,000) – a 17% drop from the May 2024 peak and the lowest June level recorded during the period.
Residential Burglary
Figure 10 shows the residential burglary rate in Chicago in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Chicago’s residential burglary rate was 18% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 18 study cities with data for the crime was -19%.
Figure 10. Residential Burglary Rates in Chicago, January 2018 – June 2025
Below are additional details from the offense dashboard:
- Residential burglary generally declined from 2019 to 2021, then remained mostly flat through June 2025. The highest monthly total occurred in August 2018, with 975 incidents (36.1 per 100,000 residents).
- In June 2025, there were 394 reported incidents (14.5 per 100,000), a drop of 60% from the August 2018 peak.
Non-Residential Burglary
Figure 11 shows the non-residential burglary rate in Chicago in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Chicago’s non-residential burglary rate was 50% higher than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 18 study cities with data for this crime was -18%.
Figure 11. Non-Residential Burglary Rates in Chicago, January 2018 – June 2025
Below are additional details from the offense dashboard:
- Non-residential burglary spiked by 469% from April to May 2020 (rising from 164 to 933 incidents per 100,000 residents). It then fell 78% by July 2020, spiked 138% between July and August 2020, and dropped 65% and remained at more typical levels through June 2024. In June 2024, a general increase in non-residential burglary in Chicago began, continuing through June 2025.
- In June 2025, there were 462 reported incidents (17 per 100,000 residents) – a 5% increase from November 2024 (440 incidents; 16.5 per 100,000). June 2025 was the month with the most non-residential burglaries since August 2020.
Larceny
Figure 12 shows the larceny rate in Chicago in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Chicago’s larceny rate was 9% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 36 study cities with data for larceny was -12%.
Figure 12. Larceny Rates in Chicago, January 2018 – June 2025
Below are additional details from the offense dashboard:
- Larceny in Chicago trended downward after January 2020 and by 2023, it had generally reached 2018-2019 levels. Larceny peaked in August 2018 at 6,530 reported incidents (241.8 per 100,000 residents). Another spike occurred in July 2024—6,057 incidents (227.3 per 100,000).
- In June 2025, there were 4,688 reported incidents (172.3 per 100,000) – a drop of 24% from the July 2024 spike.
Shoplifting
Figure 13 shows the shoplifting rate in Chicago in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Chicago’s shoplifting rate was 9% higher than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 23 study cities with shoplifting data was -12%.
Figure 13. Shoplifting Rates in Chicago, January 2018 – June 2025
Below are additional details from the offense dashboard:
- Shoplifting fell 65% from January 2020 to April 2020. It then began to increase. reaching a peak in July 2024 at 1,419 reported incidents (53.3 per 100,000 residents).
- In June 2025, there were 1,152 reported incidents (42.3 per 100,000) – a drop of 21% from the July 2024 peak.
Additional analysis of shoplifting patterns in Chicago and Los Angeles can be found in a Council report published in November 2024.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Figure 14 shows the motor vehicle theft rate in Chicago in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Chicago’s motor vehicle theft rate was 29% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 36 study cities with data for this crime was -25%.
Figure 14. Motor Vehicle Theft Rates in Chicago, January 2018 – June 2025
Below are additional details from the offense dashboard:
- Motor vehicle theft in Chicago spiked in the second half of 2022, peaking in October of that year at 3,186 reported incidents (119.6 per 100,000 residents). The rates in 2022 and 2023 were more than double those of earlier years in the study period. Since October 2023, the motor vehicle theft rate has generally declined, with a recent upward trend beginning in March 2025.
- In June 2025, there were 1,473 reported incidents (54.1 per 100,000) – a 55% drop from the October 2022 peak and a 28% increase from a recent low in February 2025.
Drug Offenses
Figure 15 shows the drug offense rate in Chicago in six-month increments from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Chicago’s drug offense rate was 34% higher than in the first half of 2024. There was no difference in the average rates for the 21 study cities during this period.
Figure 15. Drug Offense Rates in Chicago, January 2018 – June 2025
Below are additional details from the offense dashboard:
- Drug offenses in Chicago peaked in August 2019, with 1,443 incidents (a rate of 53.6 per 100,000 residents). Drug crimes then began to drop in January 2020, falling to a low of 179 incidents (6.5 per 100,000 residents) in April 2020. Since then, offenses have remained below 2018-2019 levels. The highest level of drug offenses post-pandemic occurred in January 2025 with 791 incidents (29 per 100,000) – a 38% drop from January 2020.
- In June 2025, there were 488 reported incidents (17.9 per 100,000) – a 67% drop from the August 2019 peak.
