Published on February 25, 2026
During his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, President Donald Trump called out the historic decline in homicide as a major achievement of the first year of his second term.
“And last year, the murder rate saw its single largest decline in recorded history,” he said. “This is the biggest decline, think of it, in recorded history. The lowest number in over 125 years—year 1900.”
This statistic comes from a CCJ crime trends analysis released in January. From the report:
“When nationwide data for jurisdictions of all sizes is reported by the FBI later this year, there is a strong likelihood that homicides in 2025 will drop to about 4.0 per 100,000 residents. That would be the lowest rate ever recorded in law enforcement or public health data going back to 1900, and would mark the largest single-year percentage drop in the homicide rate on record.”
Figure 1. U.S. Homicide Rate and Year-Over-Year Percent Change, 1900-2025
What's behind the drop in homicide?
Here are four recent pieces from CCJ exploring the drivers of the decline:
What’s Driving the Drop in Homicide? How Low Might It Go?
In this Q&A, a range of crime researchers and practitioners broadly agree that there’s no single explanation for the decline. Instead, it reflects multiple forces moving in the same direction, from prevention efforts and law enforcement strategies to broader social changes following the pandemic shock.
Webinar: What’s Driving the Crime Decline?
In this fast-paced webinar, experts discussed the most common and controversial claims around crime, including the influence of tougher immigration enforcement and the deployment of the National Guard, the expansion of community violence interruption programs, and advances in crime detection and investigation technologies.
USA Today: Historic U.S. Crime Drop Deserves Scrutiny, Not Applause Lines
The homicide drop has sparked a political fight over who deserves credit, with each side offering a clean and politically convenient story. But oversimplifying what is happening risks misunderstanding the forces behind it and the steps needed to sustain progress. In this op-ed for USA Today, CCJ President and CEO Adam Gelb focuses on three big forces moving at once: criminal justice operations and strategies, technological advances, and broad shifts in society and culture.
The Fulcrum: Crime Rates Plunge Nationwide as Homicides Hit Historic Lows
While the downward trajectory of crime is clear, it’s extremely difficult to disentangle and pinpoint what’s actually driving the drop. In this op-ed for the Fulcrum, Senior Research Specialist Ernesto Lopez dives into the data and highlights several explanations, ranging from community prevention to broader behavioral trends.
