Published on October 14 , 2025
President Trump has suggested sending military troops and federal agents to St. Louis, MO, in an effort to reduce crime and violence. The deployment would make St. Louis the sixth American city to which the Trump administration has sent the National Guard to conduct law enforcement operations, following Los Angeles, Washington, DC, Memphis, Portland, and Chicago. The president has mentioned several other cities, including Baltimore and New Orleans, as potential sites for federal intervention.
This brief reviews crime trends in St. Louis using data from the Council on Criminal Justice Mid-Year 2025 Crime Trends report, released in July 2025. That report examined offenses recorded by law enforcement in St. Louis, Washington, Chicago, Baltimore, and 38 other American cities from 2018 through June 2025.
From 2018 to 2025, St. Louis’s crime trends vary based on the specific time period and crime type considered. Overall, the homicide rate in St. Louis is among the highest in the study sample but has dropped more sharply than in many other large cities. Declines in aggravated assault, robbery, larceny, and motor vehicle theft within the past year are on par with other cities.
Examining trends over a longer period, St. Louis has had far larger reductions in some violent and property crimes than other large American cities. The homicide rate in St. Louis was 40% lower in the first half of this year than it was in the first half of the year before the pandemic, nearly triple the 14% average decline across the sample cities. The reported rate of aggravated assaults also has far outpaced other cities, dropping by 26% compared to an average reduction of 5%, while the decline in the reported robbery rate (-58%) was double the city average (-30%). The rate of reported motor vehicle theft in St. Louis was 7% lower in the first half of 2025 than in the first half of 2019, while most cities remained above 2019 levels.
The charts below present six-month trends in St. Louis for six offenses. Monthly counts and rates for St. Louis and other cities in the sample can be explored in the offense dashboard at the bottom of the CCJ Mid-Year 2025 Crime Trends report. Data for the following crime types were not available for St. Louis: aggravated assault, gun assault, sexual assault, domestic violence, carjacking, residential and non-residential burglary, shoplifting, and drug offenses. These findings are paired here with an analysis of trends in the lethality of violence from a separate Council report covering 17 cities.
Please note the following limitations: The cities included in this analysis are not necessarily representative of all jurisdictions in the United States. Not all cities published data for each offense (see the Appendix of the Mid-Year 2025 Crime Trends report for which cities reported which offenses), and trends in offenses with fewer reporting cities should be viewed with extra caution. In addition, not all crimes are reported to law enforcement, and the data collected for this report are subject to revision by local jurisdictions.
Homicide
Figure 1 shows St. Louis’s homicide rate in six-month intervals (January to June and July to December) from January 2018 through June 2025. In the first half of 2025, St. Louis’s homicide rate was 22% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 30 study cities with data for that crime was -17%.
The homicide rate in St. Louis was 40% lower in the first half of this year (January-June 2025) than it was in the first half of the year before the pandemic (January-June 2019). The average change in 30 large study cities was -14%.
Over the past six years, the highest homicide rate in St. Louis during the first half of the year was in 2020, when the reported rate was 40.3 per 100,000 residents. The rate during the first half of 2025 (22.2) was 45% below that peak.
Figure 1. Homicide Rates in St. Louis, January 2018 – June 2025
Aggravated Assault
Figure 2 shows the reported aggravated assault rate in St. Louis in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, St. Louis’s aggravated assault rate was 9% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 23 study cities with data for this crime was -10%.
St. Louis’s aggravated assault rate in the first half of 2025 was 26% lower than in the first half of 2019, while aggravated assault was 5% lower in the study cities.
The highest aggravated assault rate in St. Louis during the first half of the year was in 2020, when the reported rate was 716.4 per 100,000 residents. The rate during the first half of 2025 (466.6) was 35% below that peak.
Figure 2. Aggravated Assault Rates in St. Louis, January 2018 – June 2025
Robbery
Figure 3 shows the reported robbery rate in St. Louis in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, St. Louis’s robbery rate was 17% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 34 study cities with data for robbery was -20%.
St. Louis’s robbery rate in the first half of 2025 was 58% lower than in the first half of 2019, while robbery was 30% lower in the study cities.
The highest robbery rate in St. Louis during the first half of the year was in 2019, when the reported rate was 240 per 100,000 residents. The rate during the first half of 2025 (100.5) was 58% below that peak.
Figure 3. Robbery Rates in St. Louis, January 2018 – June 2025
Lethality Trends
Lethality refers to the share of violent incidents that result in death. Lethality is calculated as the number of homicides per 1,000 aggravated assaults and robberies. In July 2025, CCJ released a report examining lethality trends in 17 large American cities that consistently reported data on homicide, aggravated assault, and robbery.
The lethality rate in St. Louis is notably higher than the average lethality rate in 17 large U.S. cities. Lethality in St. Louis, by the end of 2024, was at the same level as it was in 2018 (38.6 homicides per 1,000 aggravated assaults and robberies), while the average level of lethality in the city sample was 20% higher in 2024 than in 2018.
Figure 4. Lethality Rates in St. Louis, 2018 – 2024
Larceny
Figure 5 shows the reported larceny rate in St. Louis in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, St. Louis’s larceny rate was 1% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 36 study cities with data for larceny was -12%.
St. Louis’s larceny rate in the first half of 2025 was 18% lower than in the first half of 2019, while larceny was 19% lower in the study cities.
The highest larceny rate in St. Louis during the first half of the year was in 2018, when the reported rate was 2,019.4 per 100,000 residents. The rate during the first half of 2025 (1,507) was 25% below that peak.
Figure 5. Larceny Rates in St. Louis, January 2018 – June 2025
Motor Vehicle Theft
Figure 6 shows the reported motor vehicle theft rate in St. Louis in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, St. Louis’s motor vehicle theft rate was 31% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 36 study cities with data for this crime was -25%.
St. Louis’s motor vehicle theft rate in the first half of 2025 was 7% lower than in the first half of 2019, while motor vehicle theft was 25% higher in the study cities.
The highest motor vehicle theft rate in St. Louis during the first half of the year was in 2023, when the reported rate was 1,092.8 per 100,000 residents. The rate during the first half of 2025 (499.8) was 54% below that peak.
Figure 6. Motor Vehicle Theft Rates in St. Louis, January 2018 – June 2025
