
State of the Union: Why is Crime Going Down?
President Trump mentioned the historic homicide drop in his State of the Union. Recent CCJ commentary explores several drivers of the decline.

President Trump mentioned the historic homicide drop in his State of the Union. Recent CCJ commentary explores several drivers of the decline.

Following President Trump’s announcement about federal efforts to combat crime in Washington, DC, this brief examines trends for eight different crime types in the nation’s capital going back to 2018.

Violent crime has fallen sharply over the past three years. Its news we should all celebrate—and it’s critical that we understand why if we want to extend progress into 2026 and beyond. Experts and leaders from the Council on Criminal Justice came together for a fast-paced discussion of the most common—and controversial—claims.

A 21% drop would push homicide rate to a new historic low, new CCJ analysis finds

CCJ brought together leading experts to assess what’s driving the homicide decline, including changes in criminal justice policy, shifts in technology use, and broader social and economic trends.

With homicide down 21%, the 2025 homicide rate may reach the lowest level ever recorded in law enforcement or public health data going back to 1900, CCJ’s year-end analysis finds.