Published on October 14 , 2025
President Trump announced on September 2nd that he would consider dispatching military troops to Baltimore, MD, in an effort to reduce crime and violence. The deployment would make Baltimore another American city to which the Trump administration has sent, or signaled an intention to send, the National Guard to conduct law enforcement operations.
This brief reviews crime trends in Baltimore using data from the Council on Criminal Justice Mid-Year 2025 Crime Trends report, released in July 2025. That report examined offenses recorded by law enforcement in Baltimore, Washington, Chicago, Memphis, and 38 other American cities from 2018 through June 2025.
From 2018 to 2025, Baltimore’s crime trends vary depending on the time period and crime type considered. Overall, the homicide rate in Baltimore is among the highest in the study sample but has dropped more sharply than in other large cities. From 2024 to 2025, Baltimore experienced declines in aggravated assaults, robberies, carjackings, and motor vehicle thefts that are on par with other cities. In this time frame, declines in gun assaults and larcenies have not been as large, but the city has experienced a large decrease in sexual assaults compared to other cities.
Longer-term crime trends in Baltimore are more mixed. Homicides for the first half of 2025 were 56% lower than the first half of 2019, but motor vehicle theft levels were 28% higher in the first six months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2019. Baltimore’s decline in homicide was the largest of any city in the CCJ sample over this period, while motor vehicle theft trends are similar to other cities.
The charts below present six-month trends for eight offenses in Baltimore. Monthly counts and rates for Baltimore and other cities in the sample can be explored in the offense dashboard at the bottom of the CCJ Mid-Year 2025 Crime Trends report. Data for the following five crime types collected in other cities were not available for Baltimore: domestic violence, residential burglary, non-residential burglary, shoplifting, and drug offenses. These findings are paired here with an analysis of trends in the lethality of violence from a separate Council report covering 17 cities.
Please note the following limitations: The cities included in this analysis are not necessarily representative of all jurisdictions in the United States. Not all cities published data for each offense (see the Appendix of the Mid-Year 2025 Crime Trends report for which cities reported which offenses), and trends in offenses with fewer reporting cities should be viewed with extra caution. In addition, not all crimes are reported to law enforcement, and the data collected for this report are subject to revision by local jurisdictions.
Homicide
Figure 1 shows Baltimore’s homicide rate in six-month intervals (January to June and July to December) from January 2018 through June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Baltimore’s homicide rate was 24% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 30 study cities with data for that crime was -17%.
The homicide rate in Baltimore was 56% lower in the first half of this year (January-June 2025) than it was in the first half of the year before the pandemic (January-June 2019). The average change in 30 large study cities was -14%.
Over the past six years, the highest homicide rate in Baltimore during the first half of the year was in 2022, when the reported rate was 32.1 per 100,000 residents. The rate during the first half of 2025 (11.8) was 63% below that peak.
Figure 1. Homicide Rates in Baltimore, January 2018 – June 2025
Aggravated Assault
Figure 2 shows the reported aggravated assault rate in Baltimore in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Baltimore’s aggravated assault rate was 12% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 23 study cities with data for this crime was -10%.
Baltimore’s aggravated assault rate in the first half of 2025 was 10% lower than in the first half of 2019, while aggravated assault was 5% lower in the study cities.
The highest aggravated assault rate in Baltimore during the first half of the year was in 2023, when the reported rate was 532.9 per 100,000 residents. The rate during the first half of 2025 (417.1) was 22% below that peak.
Figure 2. Aggravated Assault Rates in Baltimore, January 2018 – June 2025
Gun Assault
Gun assaults are a subset of aggravated assaults. Figure 3 shows the reported gun assault rate in Baltimore in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Baltimore’s gun assault rate was 9% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 11 study cities with data for gun assaults was -21%.
Baltimore’s gun assault rate in the first half of 2025 was 18% lower than in the first half of 2019, while gun assaults were 4% lower in the study cities.
The highest gun assault rate in Baltimore during the first half of the year was in 2022, when the reported rate was 154.9 per 100,000 residents. The rate during the first half of 2025 (98.4) was 36% below that peak.
Figure 3. Gun Assault Rates in Baltimore, January 2018 – June 2025
Sexual Assault
Figure 4 shows the reported sexual assault rate in Baltimore in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Baltimore’s sexual assault rate was 35% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 23 study cities with data for this crime was -10%.
Baltimore’s sexual assault rate in the first half of 2025 was 18% lower than in the first half of 2019, while sexual assault was 28% lower in the study cities.
The highest sexual assault rate in Baltimore during the first half of the year was in 2018, when the reported rate was 33.7 per 100,000 residents. The rate during the first half of 2025 (22.0) was 35% below that peak.
Figure 4. Sexual Assault Rates in Baltimore, January 2018 – June 2025
Robbery
Figure 5 shows the reported robbery rate in Baltimore in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Baltimore’s robbery rate was 23% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 34 study cities with data for robbery was -20%.
Baltimore’s robbery rate in the first half of 2025 was 30% lower than in the first half of 2019, the same average reduction across the study cities.
The highest robbery rate in Baltimore during the first half of the year was in 2018, when the reported rate was 412.9 per 100,000 residents. The rate during the first half of 2025 (274.2) was 34% below that peak.
Figure 5. Robbery Rates in Baltimore, January 2018 – June 2025
Carjacking
Figure 6 shows the reported carjacking rate in Baltimore in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Baltimore’s carjacking rate was 18% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the nine study cities providing carjacking data was -24%.
Baltimore’s carjacking rate in the first half of 2025 was 19% lower than in the first half of 2019, while carjacking was 3% lower in the study cities.
The highest carjacking rate in Baltimore during the first half of the year was in 2022, when the reported rate was 59.8 per 100,000 residents. The rate during the first half of 2025 (32.6) was 45% below that peak.
Figure 6. Carjacking Rates in Baltimore, January 2018 – June 2025
Lethality Trends
Lethality refers to the share of violent incidents that result in death. Lethality is calculated as the number of homicides per 1,000 aggravated assaults and robberies. In July 2025, CCJ released a report examining lethality trends in 17 large American cities that consistently reported data on homicide, aggravated assault, and robbery.
Figure 7 shows trends in lethality in Baltimore from 2012 to 2024. From 2012 to 2020, lethality levels rose in Baltimore, led by sharp spikes from 2014 to 2015 (a 40% increase) and 2018 to 2020 (a 35% increase). Since the peak in 2020, lethality levels have fallen every year, and in 2024, lethality was 16% lower than in 2012.
Figure 7. Baltimore Lethality Trends, 2012–2024
Firearm lethality in Baltimore followed a similar trajectory during the study period (Figure 8), with sharp spikes from 2014 to 2015 and from 2018 to 2021. After peaking in 2021, firearm lethality levels dropped significantly after 2021. In 2024, firearm lethality was 16% lower than in 2012.
Figure 8. Baltimore Firearm Lethality Trends, 2012–2024
Larceny
Figure 9 shows the reported larceny rate in Baltimore in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Baltimore’s larceny rate was 1% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 36 study cities with data for larceny was -12%.
Baltimore’s larceny rate in the first half of 2025 was 4% lower than in the first half of 2019, while larceny was 19% lower in the study cities.
The highest larceny rate in Baltimore during the first half of the year was in 2023, when the reported rate was 1,331.5 per 100,000 residents. The rate during the first half of 2025 (1,270.3) was 5% below that peak.
Figure 9. Larceny Rates in Baltimore, January 2018 – June 2025
Motor Vehicle Theft
Figure 10 shows the reported motor vehicle theft rate in Baltimore in six-month intervals from January 2018 to June 2025. In the first half of 2025, Baltimore’s motor vehicle theft rate was 33% lower than in the first half of 2024. The average change in the 36 study cities with data for this crime was -25%.
Baltimore’s motor vehicle theft rate in the first half of 2025 was 28% higher than in the first half of 2019, while motor vehicle theft was 25% higher in the study cities.
The highest motor vehicle theft rate in Baltimore during the first half of the year was in 2023, when the reported rate was 718.8 per 100,000 residents. The rate during the first half of 2025 (397.0) was 45% below that peak.
Figure 10. Motor Vehicle Theft Rates in Baltimore, January 2018 – June 2025
